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Gold Weaker on Reduced Risk Aversion; Bearish Outside Markets - 02/09/2015.
2015-09-03 00:38:13

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session are moderately lower Wednesday. There was significantly less risk aversion in the market place on this day, following the sharp sell-offs in the U.S. stock indexes Tuesday. That pulled buying interest away from safe-haven gold. The closely followed outside markets were also bearish for the precious metals Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. December Comex gold was last down $5.60 at $1,134.20 an ounce. December Comex silver was last up $0.055 at $14.675 an ounce.

World stock markets were more stable Wednesday after selling off Tuesday. China’s Shanghai stock index closed down 0.2% Wednesday, which is well off the daily low. China market watchers believe the Chinese government was again intervening and buying shares to prop up its stock market. China’s markets are closed Thursday and Friday for a national holiday. Other Asian and European stock indexes were weaker Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei index was down 0.4% on the day. U.S. stock indexes were higher in afternoon trading.

The U.S. ADP national employment report for August was released Wednesday, showing a jobs gain of 190,000, which was just slightly below expectations. The gold market down-ticked just slightly on the news. The most important U.S. economic report of the week, if not the month, is due out Friday, in the Labor Department’s employment report. August non-farm payrolls are seen up 200,000, or just a bit higher.

Debate in the market place continues regarding whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in years at its September FOMC meeting. There is no clear consensus among traders and investors. Friday’s U.S. jobs report could be a determining factor on whether the Fed makes a rate hike in September, or waits until December, or later. Recent global market turmoil falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who favor the Fed holding off on raising rates.

In the Euro Zone, it was reported Wednesday that producer prices in July were down 0.1% from June and down 2.1%, year-on-year. The numbers were in line with expectations but still worrisome because of the deflationary implications. The European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, but it’s not expected the ECB will make significant monetary policy changes at this gathering.

Nymex crude oil futures prices were again lower following big losses Tuesday. Nymex crude had surged by over $10 a barrel in less than a week, but on Tuesday and Wednesday nearly half of those gains had been given back. There were technical clues earlier this week that crude oil had put in a market bottom. However, if crude oil prices close out the week at or near the weekly low, those technical clues would likely become moot.

The London P.M. gold fix today was $1,137.75 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,140.00.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low today.  Gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the August high of $1,169.80. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,116.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,141.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,147.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,131.20 and then at this week’s low of $1,125.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

December silver futures prices closed near mid-range today and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $15.77 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.815 and then at $15.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $14.39 and then at $14.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 265 points at 232.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The key outside markets were in a bearish posture for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. Copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 243.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 210.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 234.65 cents and then at last week’s high of 236.60 cents. First support is seen at 230.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 228.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff





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