(Kitco News) - There is optimism on gold among retail and professional investors as markets enter the Christmas holiday/New Year’s season, according to the last Kitco News Wall Street vs. Main Street Weekly Gold Survey of 2015.
Trading activity has been relatively quiet as markets prepare to close early Christmas Eve. Thin trading is helping gold futures end the shortened trading week in positive territory. Comex February gold futures are preparing to end Thursday with a weekly gain of slightly less than 1%, last trading at $1,074.50 an ounce.
With most investors and traders focusing on the approaching holidays, Kitco News saw a muted response in both its online and professional surveys. This week 180 people voted in Kitco’s online survey; of those, 83, or 46%, are bullish on prices next week. On the other side, 68 people, or 37%, said they are bearish on prices next week, and 43 people, or 13%, were neutral on the market.
Last week, slightly more retail investors were bearish on gold, with 44% saying they were expecting to see lower price in the previous survey.
The results of Kitco’s professional survey were slightly more bullish on gold in the short term. Out of 36 market experts contacted, 14 responded, of which seven, or 50%, said they expect to see higher prices next week. At the same time, three analysts, or 21%, expect to see lower prices, and four people, or 29%, are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
Most analysts continue to watch the U.S. dollar to try to gauge gold’s next near-term move. “I see a stronger gold market as I see weakness developing in the U.S. dollar,” said Bob Tebbutt of Armour Asset Risk Management.
Other analysts remain optimistic on prices, in a contrarian play, saying that record negative sentiment in the marketplace could lead to short covering heading into the New Year.
“Given the high number of shorts and general lack of interest in gold, a good rally could be in the offing for the next six to eight weeks,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management.
“An improving technical picture, especially restoration of upward momentum, will trigger some short covering in a market that is excessively short,” added Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and senior economic advisor to Rosland Capital LLC.
As for where prices could go ahead of the New Year, Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals, said that he sees prices capped at around $1,080 an ounce.
Wall Street
50%
21%VS
Main Street
46%37%
By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com
Follow Neils Christensen @neils_C
