Gold prices are moderately lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, on more profit taking and a corrective technical pressure. A firmer U.S. dollar index is also a negative “outside market” force working against the precious metals markets Thursday. April gold was last down $10.10 at $1,310.30 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $1.30 at $1,310.00. March Comex silver last traded down $0.305 at $21.545 an ounce.

Traders and investors are still buzzing about Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes, in which the Federal Reserve’s voting members held the line on wanting to keep the Fed’s “tapering” process in place—despite some recent weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The FOMC minutes were deemed just a bit more hawkish than expected, which pressured gold slightly, but did not have a major impact on the market place.

There was a downbeat manufacturing purchasing managers’ index coming out of China Thursday, which is also a negative for the raw commodity sector, including the metals. The Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at a seven-month low of 48.3 in February from 49.5 in January. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. This report adds to recent concerns about a slowing Chinese economy—the second-largest in the world and the world’s largest raw commodity consumer. Meantime, the European Union manufacturing and services PMI came in at 52.7 in February versus 52.9 in January. The China PMI data and the slightly more hawkish FOMC minutes worked to put some downside pressure on Asian and European stock markets Thursday.

Violence in Ukraine this week is getting major news coverage. There was a truce reported between the government and protesters late Wednesday, but gunfire was reported in Kiev Thursday. If that situation sees violence escalate, more risk aversion would enter the market place to more directly impact markets.

There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the consumer price index, leading economic indicators, the flash manufacturing PMI, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The violence in Ukraine and a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due out Thursday have put some more risk into the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,313.75 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,320.50.

Technically, April gold futures prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls still have the near-term technical advantage and their next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,360.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at $1,280.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,315.90 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,323.00. First support is seen at $1,300.00 and then at $1,290.00.  

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hit a more-than-three-month high Tuesday. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $21.71 and then at this week’s high of $21.98. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $21.315 and then at $21.00.

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