Gold prices are modestly higher in early trading Friday, as sellers are scarce and safe-haven buying has once again emerged amid keener anxiety in the market place. Gold futures prices hit another six-month high Friday. April gold was last up $2.40 at $1,375.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $2.60 at $1,374.25. May Comex silver last traded up $0.267 at $21.46 an ounce.

The market place is heading into the weekend with higher apprehension. It’s a mostly “risk-off” day for traders and investors Friday. European and Asian stock markets were lower overnight due to two main worries: the Ukraine crisis and slowing China economic growth. U.S. stock indexes rebounded modestly Friday morning in electronic trading, following sharp losses suffered on Thursday.

The Russian troop occupation of Ukraine remains a major concern among traders and investors. Reports Thursday said more Russian troops were mobilizing near the Ukraine border with Russia. A referendum from Crimean citizens on secession is scheduled for Sunday, and that vote outcome result could escalate the crisis in the region. U.S. and European Union leaders are threatening to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia—likely to be announced next week.  There has already been a heavy price paid by the Russian economy for its invasion of Ukraine. Russian stock and financial markets have taken a beating the past week.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is set to meet with Russia’s foreign minister Friday, in an effort to scale down the Ukraine situation. Not much substantive is expected to come out of that meeting. Kerry this week said it’s likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will annex the Crimea region.

Almost as worrisome as the Ukraine situation is recent downbeat economic data coming out of China. This week it was reported China’s industrial output did not meet market expectations, although the 8.6%, year-on-year rise in the January and February period was still very strong by world standards. What the market place perceives is that the rate of economic growth in China is gradually slowing. Traders and investors are also concerned about China’s credit and financial system, given the recent bond default by a Chinese corporation—the first one ever.

Markets’ price action Monday morning could be volatile if the Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates during the weekend. With the U.S. stock markets already looking “toppy,” the China and Ukraine matters could be the fundamental news that is the excuse for U.S. equities to put in major tops.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 8.0 (The Ukraine situation remains a significant geopolitical risk in the market place, while China’s economic and financial conditions are also a worry. The market place is heading into an uncertain weekend.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,370.00 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,368.75.

Technically, April gold futures prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and have just hit another six-month high. The gold bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at last week’s low of $1,326.60. First resistance is seen at $1,380.00 and then at $1,385.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,368.20 and then at $1,360.00.  

May silver futures bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $21.74 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $21.56 and then at $21.65. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $21.14 and then at $20.82.

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