Gold prices are moderately lower, have fallen below psychological support at $1,300 and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading Thursday. A dearth of fresh, bullish fundamental news is allowing the technically oriented bears to take charge. April gold was last down $9.40 at $1,293.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $11.60 at $1,194.75. May Comex silver last traded down $0.145 at $19.64 an ounce.
The markets are still digesting news late Wednesday that some U.S. and world banks, including Citi, failed a government stress test due to inadequate capital plans. Those banks will have to resubmit new capital plans to the Federal Reserve. The news, while somewhat surprising, has not rattled the market place.
The Russia-Ukraine tensions have not escalated significantly recently, but the situation remains a concern to the world market place. While the U.S. is leading a worldwide effort to isolate Russia after its annexation of Crimea, reports Thursday said Russian economic growth is set to slow to the weakest rate in years. Foreign capital in Russia has seen a mass exodus since the crisis emerged. Russia’s deteriorating economy and world isolation will very likely only make Russian president Vladimir Putin more defiant on the world stage. Remember that the Russian military is still very powerful and is still bristling with nuclear missiles. Put another way, Russia could become the next North Korea—only supersized. This entire matter is likely to become a longer-term bullish underlying factor for safe-haven gold. Some are now calling the present U.S.-Russia relations “Cold War 2.0.”
Meantime, the IMF has agreed to loan Ukraine up to $18 billion to help out that nation’s struggling economy, after the Russian incursion.
Reports this week say demand for physical gold from Asia continues tepid.
U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third-quarter GDP estimate, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and pending home sales.
Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has for the moment de-escalated but is still an unsettling market factor.)
(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.
The London A.M. gold fix is $1,295.00 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,304.00.
Technically, gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and still have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,335.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at the overnight high of $1,307.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,292.00 and then at $1,285.00.
May silver futures bears have the firm near-term technical advantage as prices hit a seven-week low overnight. A four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.63 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $19.87 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $19.575 and then at $19.50.
| TIME | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Tokyo | Ha Noi | HongKong | LonDon | NewYork |
| Prices By NTGOLD | ||
|---|---|---|
| We Sell | We Buy | |
| 37.5g ABC Luong Bar | ||
| 4,593.50 | 4,243.50 | |
| 1oz ABC Bullion Cast Bar | ||
| 3,822.00 | 3,482.00 | |
| 100g ABC Bullion Bar | ||
| 12,195.60 | 11,245.60 | |
| 1kg ABC Bullion Silver | ||
| 1,651.90 | 1,301.90 | |
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