Gold prices are trading around unchanged in quieter U.S. dealings early Monday. Traders and investors are awaiting a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due out this week, capped by the jobs report on Friday. June gold was last down $0.50 at $1,293.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $2.00 at $1,293.50. May Comex silver last traded up $0.170 at $19.96 an ounce.

Monday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important day from a technical and charts perspective. U.S. economic data due out Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the Texas manufacturing and business survey.

In overnight news, the annual inflation rate in the European Union rose by 0.5%, year-on-year, which is the lowest rate since 2009. This reading is well below the 2% annual inflation target set by the European Central Bank. The latest inflation report is another clue the ECB will implement more monetary policy stimulus at some point soon. The ECB holds its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday, including a press conference by ECB president Mario Draghi. Market expectations are that the ECB will not change its monetary policy at Thursday’s meeting.

Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine remains a geopolitical tension, but not quite a front-burner markets issue at this time. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with the Russian foreign minister during the weekend, but little progress was made, reports said.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The Ukraine situation has for the moment de-escalated.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,294.00 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,294.75.

Technically, June Comex gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and still have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,320.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at $1,307.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,290.70 and then at last week’s low of $1,286.10.  

May silver futures bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.63 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $20.01 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $19.74 and then at last week’s low of $19.575.

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