Gold prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Technical chart consolidation is featured as traders and investors are awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). June gold was last down $4.40 at $1,304.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.50 at $1,304.00. May Comex silver last traded down $0.242 at $19.81 an ounce.

The FOMC report is arguably the most important data point of the week for the market place. Data from the Fed have become key inflection points for the market place the past several months. FOMC minutes in previous months have been markets-movers.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

The Russia-Ukraine matter is moving back toward the front burner of the market place this week. Pro-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine have become more active recently. This situation could flare up quickly and once again become a geopolitical flash point.  Gold would likely see safe-haven demand increase on any escalation of this conflict.

The slumping U.S. dollar index has been a feature in the market place this week. If the greenback continues to sink it would become a more significant bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including precious metals.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are moving closer to the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,309.75 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,309.50.

Technically, June Comex gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent upside price action is one clue this market has put in a near-term low. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,320.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below technical support at last week’s low of $1,277.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,314.70 and then at $1,320.00. First support is seen at $1,300.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,295.80.  

May silver futures bears have the near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.63 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at the overnight high of $20.095. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $19.73 and then at the March low of $19.575.

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