Gold is steady to lower in early U.S. trading Monday on a downside technical correction from recent gains that produced a bullish weekly high close last Friday. Some safe-haven demand and a weaker U.S. dollar index are bullish factors which are limiting the selling pressure in gold to start the new trading week. June gold was last down $1.00 at $1,299.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $3.90 at $1,300.40. May Comex silver last traded down $0.156 at $19.535 an ounce.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is still at the forefront of the world market place to start the trading week. The situation did not seriously escalate during the weekend but it did not de-escalate, either, in the eyes of the market place. Pro-Russian separatists took western hostages and paraded them in front of the cameras during the weekend. Russia still has troops near the Ukraine border. The U.S. and European Union are set to slap new sanctions on Russia, beginning Monday. This situation is still a potential geopolitical flashpoint and will likely get worse before it gets better. Gold and other safe-haven assets have and will likely continue to benefit from the instability in Ukraine.

This is a very busy week of U.S. economic data, highlighted by the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday, the gross domestic product report on Wednesday and the Labor Department’s jobs report on Friday. Other key U.S. reports are scattered throughout the week. On Thursday there is also important manufacturing data coming out of China. Markets will likely be impacted by this week’s heavy slate of economic data.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are still high early this week.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,302.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,301.250

Technically, June gold futures prices late last week showed early clues that a near-term market bottom is in place, including a bullish weekly high close on Friday. But right now the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1,331.40. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,268.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,306.60 and then at $1,310.00. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $1,290.40 and then at $1,277.40.  

May silver futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close last Friday is an early clue of a market low being in place. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $20.40 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $18.93. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $19.755 and then at last week’s high of $19.91. Next support is seen at $19.22 and then at $19.00.

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