(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session right around the unchanged level on the day Monday. Modest early losses were erased when crude oil prices staged another big rally, to give beleaguered raw commodity sector bulls some hope that sector leader crude has put in a market bottom. December Comex gold was last down $0.50 at $1,133.50 an ounce. December Comex silver was last up $0.051 at $14.60 an ounce.

October Nymex crude oil traded above $48.00 a barrel Monday, and has tacked on more than $10.00 a barrel since last week’s six-year low of $37.75 a barrel. Crude oil prices are poised to close at a technically bullish monthly high close Monday, the last trading day of the month. October crude oil futures scored a bullish “key reversal” up on the weekly bar chart last week, which is another clue that a market bottom is in place. If crude oil prices have indeed bottomed out, it’s likely the same will or will soon occur in many other beaten-up raw commodity markets, including the precious metals. It appears all the bearish news about the crude oil market became factored into prices last week.

Meantime, the other key “outside market, the U.S. dollar index, was weaker Monday. The greenback bulls had a good week last week, moving prices well up from the August spike low.

China’s Shanghai stock index was down just short of 1% Monday. Reports said China’s central bank was not intervening to buy domestic shares today. The London Financial Times reported Monday that China will abandon its intervention in its stock market, as Chinese officials acknowledged the efforts were not working as planned. Thursday China celebrates 70 years since its victory over Japan in World War Two. There will be a big military parade on that day. Market watchers speculate China’s government does not want a slumping stock market to take the luster away from the big parade. 

There was no London P.M. gold fix today as the U.K. markets were closed for a holiday.

Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session high today. There has not been strong safe-haven demand for gold recently, and that has helped to sink the metal, along with the generally bearish raw commodity sector. Gold bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the August high of $1,169.80. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,135.20 and then at Friday’s high of $1,140.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,125.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,116.90. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

December silver futures prices closed nearer the session high today. Silver bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices last week hit a six-year low. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $15.77 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $14.67 and then at $15.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $14.39 and then at $14.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 90 points at 233.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Copper bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices last week hit a six-year low. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 243.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 210.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 236.60 cents and then at 238.00 cents. First support is seen at 230.00 cents and then at 227.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff

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