(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session lower Thursday, as less risk aversion in the market place the past two sessions has curtailed buying interest in the safe-haven metal. A higher U.S. dollar index on this day was also a bearish element for the precious metals markets. Now, focus is squarely on Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report. December Comex gold was last down $9.40 at $1,124.20 an ounce. December Comex silver was last down $0.002 at $14.665 an ounce.
Traders and investors are awaiting Friday’s U.S. employment report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up 200,000, or slightly above, in August. This report is the most important economic report of the week, and arguably of the month. Debate in the market place continues regarding whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in years at its September FOMC meeting. There is no clear consensus among traders and investors, which is also causing some anxiety in the market place. Friday’s U.S. jobs report could be a determining factor on whether the Fed makes a rate hike in September, or waits until December, or later. The recent global market turmoil falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who favor the Fed holding off on raising rates.
World stock markets were stable to firmer again Thursday. China’s markets are closed Thursday and Friday for a national holiday and a big military parade. China’s flailing stock market and recent weak economic data have been a main culprit in a roiled world market place the past couple weeks. With China closed, the market place is calmer. Other Asian and European stock indexes were firmer Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei index was up 0.5% on the day. U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher in preopening trading.
The European Central Bank held its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday and did not change its monetary policy. A change was not expected at this meeting. However, ECB President Mario Draghi’s remarks were deemed as fully dovish as he warned about disinflation in the European Union and the bloc’s economic slowdown as being problematic. Many European market watchers believe the ECB will at some point in the not-too-distant future announce more monetary policy stimulus measures. Draghi’s remarks at his press conference also gave the U.S. dollar index a further boost from already-higher price levels on the day.
The Euro zone did receive some upbeat economic data Thursday. The August services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 54.4 versus 54.0 in July. A reading of 54.3 was expected. A number above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector.
The International Monetary Fund said in a just-released report that China’s economic slowdown and stock market turmoil threaten to damage the world’s major economies. “Risks are tilted to the downside, and a simultaneous realization of some of these risks would imply a much weaker outlook,” the IMF said in a report on the state of the global economy. “Strong mutual policy action is needed to raise growth and mitigate risks,” the IMF said.
Nymex crude oil futures prices were higher Thursday afternoon. There are technical clues that crude oil has put in a market bottom. However, if crude oil prices close out the week near the weekly low, those technical clues would likely become much less credible. A bottom in the crude oil market would be a bullish development for the entire raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.
The London P.M. gold fix today was $1,128.00 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,130.05.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low again today. Gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,147.30. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,133.80 and then at $1,141.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,121.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,116.90. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5
December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low today. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $15.77 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.95 and then at $15.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $14.39 and then at $14.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
December N.Y. copper closed up 470 points at 237.65 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a three-week high today. Short covering was featured. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bullish weekly high close on Friday would be an early clue copper has put in a near-term bottom. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 243.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 220.25 cents. First resistance is seen at 240.00 cents and then at today’s high of 241.80 cents. First support is seen at 235.00 cents and then at today’s low of 232.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff
| TIME | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Tokyo | Ha Noi | HongKong | LonDon | NewYork |
| Prices By NTGOLD | ||
|---|---|---|
| We Sell | We Buy | |
| 37.5g ABC Luong Bar | ||
| 4,593.50 | 4,243.50 | |
| 1oz ABC Bullion Cast Bar | ||
| 3,822.00 | 3,482.00 | |
| 100g ABC Bullion Bar | ||
| 12,195.60 | 11,245.60 | |
| 1kg ABC Bullion Silver | ||
| 1,651.90 | 1,301.90 | |
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